A weekly show about the news and the money
What the papers saidversuswhat the money said
Every Sunday we take the biggest stories of the week and check them against the prediction markets. Did the money believe the headlines, ignore them, or see it coming?
Next episode
Sunday · 9:00 a.m. ET
9:00 New York · 14:00 London · 15:00 Malta
On YouTube from the first episode.
The question we ask every week
Five verdicts
Every story ends with one of five labels. We decide it by putting the time the news broke on top of the market's price history.
Priced in
The market had already moved before the news broke.
Bought it
The market believed the headline and moved after it.
Ignored
The story was everywhere. The market barely moved.
Pushback
The money went the opposite way from the headlines.
Split
Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on the same question by 10 points or more.
Archive
Episodes
The first episode is on October 11, 2026. Each episode gets a page here with the verdicts, the charts and every source.
How we work
Standards
- "The market puts it at 72%" — never "it will happen". Odds are estimates.
- Every number comes from the Polymarket or Kalshi data feed, with the time it was read.
- Newspapers are named and paraphrased. Contested facts need two independent sources.
- We don't take sides. We show both sides of the numbers and ask you for yours.
- Thin markets get flagged. Volumes are notional and we say so.
- Mistakes are corrected in the open: on screen, in the description and on our corrections page.